A Fundamental Map of the Market
first posted: 2022-09-03 09:35:30.977578
I have been starting to work on fundamental analysis since May. I wrote a few pieces:
- on Stock Valuation
- on Value Investing
- notes on IB financial statements
The full map of the financial statements can be seen here.
Map by Sector and Industry
- median earning yield is 4.5% and growth is 8%
- average earning yield is 0.3% and growth 12%, showing that the market has large valuation for much less profitable, higher growth companies.
- there are 10 sectors that are further partitioned in "industries"
- some sector such as Energy, Finance or Technology dominate depending on the favour of the market
- Financials and basic material earning yield median is double than the median
- Healthcare, technology and energy have half the median earning yield.
- Finance is much more capital intensive, as tested by lower turnover, followed by real estate and utilities.
K-means Fundamental Cluster
Rather than group companies in sectors, a possibility is to create clusters based on their fundamental data.
Companies with any outlier data are removed, resulting in 10% of companies removed, and data are normalized to scores. The criteria are:
- consensus recommendation (to incorporate analysts ratings)
- avg earning yield (which is sales/price times the average profit margin)
- stressed earning yield (a quantity stressed down at 2 sd of margins)
- growth (geom average sales growth)
- stressed growth (sales growth stressed down 2 sd)
- dilution (to assess shareholder friendly behavior)
- margin (to identify moat)
- shareholder yield (dividend + buyback yield, to identify shareholder friendly behavior)
- turnover (sales/asset, to assess capital intensiveness)
Other indicators we produce but do not use for clustering are:
- cf margin (which is the ratio of cf from financing / sales, which is akin to profit margin unless company invests or divests)
- RandD margin (which is the ratio of R and D expense over sales, which identify high tech businesses)
- Valuation Ratio, Stressed Ratio, stressed Ratio Paid (distributed to shareholders), Ratio from analysts price target
We observe the following clusters
- loss making companies with high sales growth 46 (service now), or not consistently profitable with high growth 89 (haidilao etc)
- high yield, high growth companies 1 (aapl, msft, meta, asm,...) or with high capital intensity 11: (realty income corp, financials)
- 60: low yield, high growth (amzn, Intuit)
- 58 mid yield, mid growth (texas inst, hermes, shimano)
- high earning yield 6 (China Life, Hutchinson and mostly Chinese) 84: mostly Chinese, Eurazeo, 40: high earning yield, unstable growth (Deutsche Post, Seb, Daimler Truck)