This blog covers the general topic of financial markets.

Listen when the markets speak

first posted: 2024-08-28 19:22:26.185641

In March 2024, Lawrence McDonald publishes Listen when markets speak, coauthored with professional writer James Robinson.

The main ideas are:

  • 30y of disinflation was due to cold war end
  • 1.4t debt pmt now, 200t unfunded liabilities
  • outsourcing depressed inflation and increase debt
  • Russia, China, Saudi Arabia dedollarize
  • Inflation increases the power of labour
  • West war on oil and gas. Underinvested on fossil fuels
  • Population growth and Energie transition increase tension on Lithium and Cobalt mining
  • Crypto relies on rates going down and repressed rates. It turns out to be more sensitive than bonds.
  • Algo trading creates risks
  • Passive indexing leads to SP500 hijacked by 14 stocks
  • 40/60 is dead

img

The author recommends investing in

  • KGGIX
  • QVAL
  • IVAL
  • COWZ
  • CALF
  • ICOW
  • GRHIX

He believes Uranium to be an intresting deal though he is waiting for technicals to align. He assumes that miners are a better play than futures but does not expound on why.

He suggest that

  • the 40 bonds of the 60/40 get replaced by 20 bonds, 10 cash, 10 commo.
  • the 60 of SP500 be replaced by a mix of energy, mining/basic materials and value stocks, while growth stocks should be underweight.

Markets to research: based on valuation, we recommend to checkout the following markets